GM, Free Agents. Happy Sunday.

Welcome to the The Free Transfer— the 5-min daily newsletter making you smarter about football.

Manchester United were really just another casualty of Ilkay Gundogan’s springtime reign of terror. What a player.

What we’ve got this fine Sunday:

• Manuel Ugarte to Chelsea— almost done? 💥 🇺🇾 

  • Stats test & eye test

  • Would he complement Enzo?

• Insane 6-team LaLiga relegation battle on final day (today)🔻 

• Manchester City win FA Cup; RB Leipzig win DFB-Pokal 🏆️ 

Ugarte to Chelsea almost done? 💥 🇺🇾 

Manuel Ugarte to Chelsea is getting closer to being finished. PSG are hanging around, but it was reported last week that Ugarte preferred a move to the Premier League over PSG. The only hang-up could be the lack of any European football at Chelsea, but they should be back in the mix for that next season.

Who is he? 🔍️ 

Stats test

Versus other great #6s

We used data from debatably the “best” season of each of these model #6s (current or historic) to compare to Ugarte’s 2022-23 campaign.

Ugarte’s Passing

• Highest short, medium, & overall passing completion %

  • Although the lowest “progressive pass distance”

  • Lowest amount of total passes over the season

Ugarte’s Defending

• Most tackles & “tackles+interceptions” per 90

  • Although the most amount of tackles lost per 90

Next to his future midfield partner, Enzo Fernandez ⤵️ 

That looks like an extremely complementary skillset from this potential double pivot.

Enzo has great progressive passing while Ugarte sweeps up the mess on the defensive side of things & dribbles well.

Ugarte’s high turnovers can be mitigated by having a partner like Enzo who holds onto & circulates the ball well.

Enzo has had to do a lot of overcompesating for Chelsea since joining in January, trying to be a #6, ball progressor, & circulator. Ugarte & he can foil each other in this respect.

Eye test

Stats may tell you of inefficiency on the ball or in the tackle, but when you watch Manuel Ugarte you can start to really get a sense for what he brings to the table.

Tackling

He is vicious in the tackle. This season we saw him dominate very physical Arsenal & Juventus midfields in the Europa League. He repeatedly pushed the extremely physical Xhaka & Rabiot off the ball as if they didn’t exist.

Dribbling

Ugarte will hunt down the ball like Kante, win it back, then take 2 men on with a dribble. He can progress the ball upfield very well by dribbling.

Interceptions

Ugarte loves to be aggressive in intercepting the ball. He jumps passing lanes & strips his man of the ball.

Overall fit 🧩 

Next to Enzo in a double pivot/lone #6, Manuel Ugarte should thrive. His aggression off the ball is great for stopping dribblers & recovering possession.

Once in possession, he is a conservative passer who likes to circulate the ball. This should be perfect as he can dump it off to Enzo, the “quarterback” of Chelsea’s midfield.

On the ball, he makes up for his lacking of progressive passing with progressive dribbling. He has good close control, & can ride challenges to carry the ball upfield.

Physically, he is not the quickest but he is deceptively strong.

He & Enzo should strike a good balance.

INSANE 6-TEAM LALIGA RELEGATION BATTLE ON FINAL DAY 🔻

Let’s check out that table ⤵️ 

The relegation battle ⏬ 

Anyone from Cadiz (13th) to Real Valldolid (18th) can still be relegated on LaLiga’s final day, later today.

We’ve made a safety scale going from safest 🟢 🟡🟠 🔴 to most in danger.

Cadiz—13th 🟢 

Play Elche (20th) who are already relegated.

Getafe—14th 🟠 

Play Real Valladolid (18th) who have everything to play for.

Valencia—15th 🟡 

Play Real Betis (6th) who have nothing to play for.

Almeria—16th 🟡 

Play already-relegated Espanyol (19th).

Celta Vigo—17th 🔴 

Play Barcelona (1st) who have already won the league. Barca’s second team is no pushover.

Real Valladolid—18th 🔴 

Play Getafe (14th) who need a point for safety. Valladolid must win or be relegated.

What to watch 🔭 

✅ Real Valladolid vs. Getafe— must-win for Valladolid

✅ Girond vs. Osasuna— winner likely takes UECL spot

Bottom line:

• 7-12th can still qualify for UECL.

• 13-18th can still be relegated.

CITY WIN FA CUP; LEIPZIG WIN DFB-POKAL 🏆️ 

FA Cup Final 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 

Gundogan’s brace at 0:13s & 51’ secured the FA Cup for Manchester City, on their march to a potential historic treble. Gundogan is unstoppable at this time of year.

Up next: The Champions League Final vs. Inter Milan

DFB-Pokal Final 🇩🇪 

Second half goals from Christopher Nkunku & Dominik Szoboszlai gave RB Leipzig back-to-back wins in the DFB-Pokal.

It was a great farewell for Nkunku who is off to Chelsea this summer.

Szoboszlai too? 👀

That’s it! Enjoy the final weekend of domestic football until August!

Go tune in for Real Valladolid vs. Getafe to get a taste of the LaLiga relegation battle.

Cheers,

—The Gaffer