Rumored lineups & formations 🔢 

Manchester City

This is the lineup we will see from Manchester City, 99%. It would be an utter shock if there are any changes. But this is Pep Guardiola… maybe he’ll throw us a curveball.

Inter Milan

It has been reported that Mkhitaryan is not fit to start, after only having rejoined training with the group yesterday for the first time in 22 days.

It seems that Inzaghi will stick to his guns and start Dzeko over Lukaku. Dzeko has started pretty much every important match this season, as Lukaku has struggled for fitness all year. Lukaku will have a part to play in the second half.

Keys to the match 🗝️ 

The wide areas ⬅️ ➡️ 

These matchups could define the final. Inter will likely crowd the center of the pitch on defense with their 3 CBs & 3 CMs, meaning City will need to take advantage of deliveries from the wide areas to create chances.

Dumfries vs. Grealish & DiMarco vs. Bernardo could prove decisive in whether or not City are able to get good deliveries in. Apart from Grealish & Bernardo, de Bruyne & Gundogan love to live in those wide “halfspaces” too, sending in deliveries from a bit deeper. City will use their “5 lanes of attack” across the width of the pitch with Bernardo, KDB, Haaland, Gundo, & Grealish.

Bottom line: DiMarco & Dumfries have a big job on their hands defensively.

Going in the opposite direction, City are vulnerable in the wide areas as they only have three CBs back on defense for counterattacks. Rodri & Stones will be pushed up to attack, along with the other 5 City attackers.

Inter will likely look to exploit the space on the wings to push the ball upfield, & get in good deliveries for their big strikers Lautaro, Dzeko, and/or Lukaku. Grealish & Bernardo will need to do their best to track back to contain Dumfries & DiMarco going forward.

Final thoughts 💭 

Assuming that the above lineups are correct, it will be very hard for Inter to break out of the back for a counter attack. Lukaku’s threat in behind would force Rodri to be more conservative going forward, but Dzeko’s lack of pace is less worrying for City. The back 3 for City can handle Dzeko more easily, allowing Rodri to go higher up the pitch & help City keep their foot on Inter’s throat in possession.

Mkhitaryan’s absence could be a big blow for Inter on counter-attacks, as he is extremely quick & direct. But if Inter ever get settled possession in City’s half, Çalhanoğlu is much more dangerous from range.

How Inter win 🔵⚫️ 

Do not concede early (get to halftime at least on level terms)

• If the dam breaks in the first 20’, things will be looking bleak for Inter. They need to hold City out until at least the second half to give themselves a chance.

• At 0-0 after the 60’, it’s anyone’s game. From there, Inzaghi can gamble by bringing on Lukaku and co. to try and get a winner.

Take your chances— however they may come

• Inter will likely have very few scoring opportunities. Whether it’s a counter attack, a corner kick, or a set piece— they need to be absolutely clinical in front of goal if they want to win.

How City win ❄️⚪️

Score early

• Scoring early would foil Inzaghi’s gameplan, & force Inter to come out of their shell a bit. Scoring 2 goals in the first half would put the match to bed.

Do not concede set pieces

• Even if winning, set pieces are a way back into the match for Inter. They have aerial prowess in the form of Dzeko, Lukaku, Acerbi, Bastoni, Dumfries, Lautaro, etc. City need to concede as few of these as possible.