GM, Free Agents. My god, it’s another Weekend Special of The Free Transfer—the 5-min daily newsletter making you smarter about football.

A transfer update before the FA Cup final today. To Wembley we go!

Here’s some Pre-FA Cup final reading:

• The war for Pavard’s signature this summer ⚔️ 🔝 

  • Is he actually leaving Bayern? Why?

  • Why are top clubs so interested in him?

  • Where would his best fit be?

WHY ARE EUROPE’S TOP CLUBS FIGHTING TO SIGN BENJAMIN PAVARD? ⚔️ 🔝 

Benjamin Pavard rose to fame during France’s 2018 World Cup run, where he scored an absolute screamer vs. Argentina from outside of the boxt.

Since then, he has often been painted as a “poor defender” who is also “not good enough going forward”. This is largely an out of context portrayal by the media who love to pile on when they smell blood in the water.

Why is he leaving Bayern? ✈️ 

Pavard signed for Bayern in the summer of 2019, a year after his breakout performances at the World Cup 2018. He signed a 5-year contract with the Rekordmeister, meaning that as of this summer he only has 1 year left before it expires in June 2024.

As is the policy of most clubs when a player enters the final year of their contract, they have two options:

1. Sign a contract extension

2. Be sold by the club

This protects the club from losing the player on a Free Transfer the next summer.

As of this past week, Pavard has told the Bayern hierarchy that he will not be extending his contract at the club.

This has led to a frenzy for his signature from the top clubs in Europe. But why?

Why do the top clubs want him so badly? 🦈 

A special role

Benjamin Pavard has a very unique profile that has become extremely valuable in the modern game— let’s call it a inverted fullback/centerback hybrid.

It’s hard to describe, but you know it when you see it.

Some examples:

• John Stones, David Alaba, Lucas Hernandez, Ben White, Nathan Ake, etc.

What do these players all have in common?

They are:

• Physical & good enough defenders to play at centerback

• Good enough in 1v1s to defend tricky wingers in wide areas

• Technical enough to play in central midfield

They are a CB/CM/fullback roled into one player.

Why is the role so valuable?

Sometimes the prices seem to make no sense in a vacuum:

• £62mm for Cucurella from Brighton

• £50mm for Ben White from Brighton

• £45mm for Nathan Ake from relegated Bournemouth

• €45mm for Benjamin Pavard from Stuttgart

These players are often used in traditional roles of fullback, centerback, or central midfield but not use to their full capacity.

Their high prices are a projection of what a manager or club thinks that they can be for a very tailored role in a system.

These players can:

• Join the midfield or wide area in possession

• Defend wide areas like a fullback, the midfield like a CDM, and the box like a CB out of possession

Enablement

• The other “fullback” can be a full-blown attacker in possession

  • (Davies at Bayern),

• They free up midfielders to not worry about defending transitions while in possession due to midfield cover from these hybrids

  • Gundogan at City

  • Xhaka/Odegaard at Arsenal

  • Modric/Kroos at Madrid

  • Kimmich at Bayern

At its root, the profile is a value-add in & out of possession, while also being an enabler for other positions to be more threatening.

Criticism of the role

Often, you will hear players in this role attacked for being “not good enough defenders” or “not giving enough attacking output to justify their lack of defensive responsibility”.

• Essentially they are labeled as a jack of all trades, but a master of none.

Think about the criticism of:

• Ben White vs. Brentford on opening day in 2021.

• Pavard in numerous UCL campaigns with Bayern, being torn apart in the media with comparisons to Alphonso Davies’s attacking numbers.

• Marc Cucurella constantly being in “no man’s land” for Chelsea.

• Stones for being a “weak” defender in the first years at City.

These criticisms can be true, but are usually out of context.

• Like complaining that your attacking midfielder isn’t as lethal a finisher as your striker.

These guys aren’t often better than the best fullbacks, CBs, or CDMs at their specific/singular role, but they are better than any of them across all 3 roles.

Here is a chart to show you where they are, at the intersection of these three roles ⤵️ 

Being able to play all 3 roles to a high degree affords liberties to other players in their teams to get involved up pitch in possession.

But if they are used as a pure CB, fullback, or CDM— the player will not seem like they are good enough at any particular one. They need a very specific role in the system.

How to get the most out of them

They are best used as a fullback in a back 4 or an outside CB in a back 4— allowing them to invert as a 3rd CB in a back three, wander into the wider areas of attack, and/or join the heart of the midfield.

Why Pavard?

It takes all of 5 minutes of watching Benjamin Pavard to see that he is the crème de la crème of this role.

• Inverts well into midfield— extremely technical & great passer

• Defends central areas well— great in aerial duels, solid in ground duels

• Defends wide areas well— knows how to use space to his advantage

• Adds attacking threat— great crosser & threat from range

Sure, if you analyze him as only a centerback, fullback, or defensive midfielder along— he is just above average. It’s his combination of skills across the three roles that makes him special.

Where is his best fit? 🔍️ 

Our “Fit” rating is overall fit— if he will start, players already in his role at the club, tactical fit, etc.

• Real Madrid

  • Would play inverted RB, which would allow Madrid to play a very attack-minded LB in Camavinga (or other). Could start right away.

  • Fit: 9/10

• Barcelona

  • Inverted RB, would allow Balde to attack up pitch. Could join up in the midfield as well. Would be a starter.

  • Fit: 9/10

• Manchester City

  • They have John Stones in this role, & Pavard would play it just as well— even offering more in wide areas. He likely wouldn’t be a nailed starter, though, which he will want.

  • Fit: 8/10

• Manchester United

  • Would likely be a start in 75% of matches. Inverted RB which would afford Shaw more attacking freedoms.

  • Fit: 8.5/10

• Liverpool

  • Hard to see him starting over TAA, but maybe a different system could see them both feature. Good TAA alternative though.

  • Fit: 8/10

• Inter

  • As a RCB or even RWB, he could be perfect in their system. Darmian has been fantastic this season but Pavard would be a huge upgrade in possession + in aerial duels.

  • Fit: 9/10

Best overall fit: Barcelona, Inter ✅ 

Pavard will slot into a RCB/inverted RB role really well at any of the clubs he has been linked to. It’s just a matter of system/playing time prospects. At some clubs he’ll slot in immediately as a starter. In others, it’s a bit hazier.

Getting Pavard for €40mm would be an absolute steal considering his quality & the rarity of his profile.

With all of these top teams having some sort of variation of the role for him in their system, it will be a war to get him signed.

It’s likely just going to come down to which team Pavard prefers to join.

Nothing else to report today, Free Agents. 🫡 

Buckle up for the FA Cup final at 3PM UK time. Should be a hard-fought Manchester Derby. Can Ten Hag’s men prevent a City treble?

Good day,

—The Gaffer

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