GM, Free Agents. T-minus 1 day until the Champions League Final. 🍿 

Welcome to the The Free Transfer— the 5-min daily newsletter making you smarter about football.

Taking a break from transfers today. All eyes on the prize. Will City win their Treble?

We’re at DEFCON 1:

• Champions League final preview— City heavily favored 🏆️ 💥 

  • Pep Guardiola overthinking 🧠 

  • Inter’s keys to success 🗝️ 

  • Formula for beating Manchester City 🧪 

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FINAL PREVIEW— HOW CAN INTER WIN? 🏆️💣️ 

City are coming into the Champions League final as heavy favorites. Most odds books are giving them about a 75-80% chance of winning. That begs the question— can Inter win? And if so, how? How have other teams beaten them recently?

If this doesn’t show how confident Manchester City fans are, nothing does. Let’s see what Inter need to come out with a win.

Pep Guardiola overthinking 🧠 

2021 final

Pep has a history of overthinking things in finals. Look no further than Manchester City’s last appearance in the UCL final vs. Chelsea in 2021.

City dominated the 2020-21 Premier League, with Rodri as one of their most important players. Then, in a game of 5-D chess, Pep left Rodri out of the lineup & played with no defensive midfielder.

Tuchel’s Chelsea broke through with a Mason Mount through-ball that carved straight through the center of the pitch, & was finished off by Kai Havertz.

Chelsea held onto this 1-0 lead & won the final.

Various semifinals

2010 vs. Inter

While chasing Inter’s lead in the first leg, Pep subbed off Ibrahimovic for Eric Abidal, & put Pique up top as a target man. Barca lost that first leg 3-1. They won the second leg 1-0 but were eliminated. Many question his substitution of an attacker for a defender while down 3-1 in the first leg.

2014 vs. Real Madrid

After losing the first leg 1-0, Pep put out a new 4-2-4 formation for the second leg. The experiment failed horribly, & Bayern lost 4-0. Regarding the second leg Pep said:

This year is different

This season, he has a set starting XI. Nothing to tinker. Nothing to overthink…

• Grealish-Haaland-Bernardo; Gundogan-Rodri-De Bruyne; Akanji-Dias-Walker-Stones; Ederson

He will not change this pre-kickoff, barring an injury. And even in that case he has subs that maintain these tactics in Nathan Ake, Foden, Alvarez, Mahrez, Lewis, etc.

The only thing that Pep could fumble tomorrow are his substitutions. But let’s not think too far into the future here…

Inter’s keys to success 🗝️

Dominance of wide areas, defense first, packing the midfield, & a physical frontline.

These are the keys for Inter to win tomorrow ⤵️ 

Dominance in wide areas 📏 

Inter’s wingbacks are their biggest threats in exposing space against Manchester City. City like to have John Stones join the midfield from the back four, while Walker, Dias, & Akanji pinch in to make a three-back.

This will leave space in the wide areas for Denzel Dumfries & Federico Dimarco to exploit. These two love to get forward & wreak havoc. If Inter score from open play, it will likely start with these two.

Defense first 🔒️ 

Inter play with 5 defenders at all times. Bastoni at LCB, Acerbi at CCB, & Darmian at RCB. Dimarco & Dumfries play LWB & RWB.

Having 5 defenders on the field to clog the famed “5 attacking lanes” that City use with their front 3 + Gundogan & KDB, will be key to them stopping a City onslaught.

Packing the midfield 🧑‍🤝‍🧑 

Inter always play 3 midfielders to make sure the center of the park is not an empty space that possession-heavy teams can use to ping the ball around. Tomorrow, they will not let City have an extra man in midfield, which is one of the few things that has caused Pep’s men some trouble over this season.

Physical frontline 💪 🏃 

A front two of Lautaro Martinez & Edin Dzeko/Romelu Lukaku is a difficult one to handle physically, not to mention technically. Inter often leave their two strikers on an island while they defend deep in UCL, hoping that the two can link up in transition to sting their opponents. All three are very strong, and can go up against any CB in the world. Lukaku offers a lot more counter-attacking threat than Dzeko, so it would not be a surprise to see him starting tomorrow. On top of that, Lukaku & Dzeko are especially dangerous on set pieces due to their height & strength.

Formula for beating Manchester City 🧪 

Letting them “play their game” and hit on the counter

If you are going to do this, it has to be a very specific way.

1. Play a full 5 back to defend the 5 lanes of attack

2. Commit to block all space at the top of the box with box-to-box and/or defensive midfielders

3. Have physical forwards (and wingbacks if possible) who can punish them on the counter-attack & in the air

4. Have a goalkeeper who can be very accurate going long

How many of these boxes do Inter check off?

1. ✅ Play a full 5 back to defend the 5 lanes of attack

   1. Inter do this to a tee.

2. 🟧 Commit to block all space at the top of the box with box-to-box and/or defensive midfielders

   1. They do block the space well, but often play Calhanoglu as their “#6”/regista who is not the most energetic on defense. Barella & Mkhitaryan are great, energetic box-to-box midfielders, but are much more attacking-oriented than defensive. Marcelo Brozović could be key here. The #6/regista is a good defender in midfield.

3. ✅ Have physical forwards (and wingbacks if possible) who can punish them on the counter-attack & in the air

   1. Inter have this in plenty. Playing Lukaku, Lautaro, DiMarco, & Dumfries is more than enough firepower to hurt City on the counter.

   2. Lukaku/Dzeko are two of the most dangerous strikers in the world in the air.

4. ✅ Have a goalkeeper who can be very accurate going long

   1. Andre Onana has been one of the best distributors at GK in the UCL this season. He loves to go long— quickly & accurately.

All in all, Inter should be studying the way Brentford beat City this year, and the way that Spurs have over the years.

• Sit back and clogs the five lanes of attack to fluster City. Force them to resort to crosses.

  • 5 backs, or 4 backs with 3 defensive mids

• Go long to your forwards or wingbacks in the channels quickly on counter attacks.

  • Good distribution to wide channels to exploit space. Allows attackers to run through the middle for crosses.

• Make the most of every aerial duel:

  • At midfield when knocking down balls to start counters

  • Crosses into the box from open play & set pieces

    • Lukaku, Lautaro, & Dzeko can emulate Harry Kane + Ivan Toney vs. City.

• Don’t let City dominate the center of the pitch while in possession.

  • Pressing in the central areas

All in all 💭 

Inter are fully capable of doing these things. It just comes down to execution. Inter are one of the worst match-ups possible for City. Their wingbacks and forwards will be an absolute handful for City’s defense if they’re able to get out on the counter.

But then again, Madrid was not a good match-up for City either. City had to rely a lot on the atmosphere at the Etihad in the second leg to maintain pressure, though. City can try to exploit Inter’s midfield in the deep block like they did in the first half against Madrid at the Etihad. Haaland will have to be clinical with any clean chance he gets, because they could be few & far between if Inter drop deep.

All in all, City will dominate possession, & hope to suffocate Inter like they did to Real Madrid at the Etihad. For Inter, it will be about not letting City score & trying to hit on the counter.

Gaffer’s Bet 🃏 

City will likely have the lion's share of chances, but as we know— football is won with goals not chances.

• If Lukaku & Mkhitaryan start, Inter Milan win 1-0. Lukaku’s physicality & speed can overwhelm City’s backline. Mkhitaryan’s energy is needed in midfield.

• Without Lukaku & Mkhitaryan, I don’t see a way Inter can win without PKs. 3-0 City without Lukaku + Mkhitaryan.

Tomorrow will be a great one. One more sleep!

Cheers,

—The Gaffer

Share the newsletter with your friends to earn free money 👇️ 💰️