GM, Free Agents.

Welcome to the The Free Transfer— the 5-min daily newsletter making you smarter about football.

No dillydallying or lollygagging. Let’s get to it.

What we’ve got for today:

• Juventus deducted 10 points by Italian courts for financial fraud ⛔️🔟 

• Newcastle qualify for Champions League for first time in 20 years 🏆️ 🇪🇺 

• Transfer round-up, rapid-fire style 🔄 💥 

JUVE DEDUCTED 10 POINTS FOR FRAUD⛔️🔟 

After Juventus won their points-deduction appeal a few months back, many Serie A fans thought that Juve were going to get off scot-free from the charges of financial fraud that were leveled against them.

Then, last night just hours before kickoff vs. Empoli, Juve received a 10 point deduction from their Serie A points tally which put them in 7th place.

They then proceeded to lose 4-1 to Empoli, & are now close to mathematically missing out on the Champions League spots. Yikes…

Is Champions League still on the table? 🤲 

Although they were blown out of the water 4-1 by Empoli last night, they are somehow still mathematically in the top 4 race.

If they beat Milan this weekend & win their final match, it’s technically possible for Juve to come 4th on 65 points. It would take a real choke job from Milan, Atalanta, & Roma though.

This could all be a moot point

There are rumors of a European competition ban from UEFA & an automatic relegation to Serie B this summer (for the 2nd time since 2006) if investigations prove further crimes were committed. What would happen then?

Ripple effects around Europe 🌊

Missing out on UCL, a UEFA competition ban, and/or relegation to Serie B could cause a number of knock-on effects.

Champions League draw

Juventus not qualifying for Champions League next season would take them out of Pot 1/Pot 2 for the group stage draw, causing many teams to move up in the order & potentially go up a pot.

Transfer dominoes

If Juventus were not to qualify for next season’s Champions League/get relegated to Serie B, you would expect to see a handful of players wanting to leave the club.

Contracts expiring this season

Permanent contracts— Rabiot, Cuadrado, Di Maria

Loans— Paredes, Milik

• These players could just be the tip of the iceberg. Even players whose contracts are not expiring could demand to leave if rumored punishments are given to Juve.

We will have to wait & see what the courts rule on this one.

NEWCASTLE IN UCL FOR FIRST TIME IN 20 YRS 🏆️ 🇪🇺 

To cap off a transformative 18 months for the club, Newcastle have qualified for next season’s Champions League.

Meteoric rise ☄️ 

After being purchased by the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund last season, Newcastle was expected to outspend PL rivals on their way to the top.

But Eddie Howe has defied expectations & brought the club back faster than many imagined possible.

How did the club & Howe do this?

Heavy, but efficient spending

Yes, Newcastle spent more in the past 2 seasons than in the previous 6 seasons combined, but that doesn’t tell the whole story.

Many of their top 4 rivals, like Manchester United, Chelsea, Tottenham, & Liverpool, have spent much more over the past 3-4 seasons. Even since the Saudi takeover, many of those teams have spent more than Newcastle.

• Heavy spending, but only for the right players.

  • No random mega-transfers that flopped

  • Only players that slot right into Howe’s system

• This has allowed them to scale up results as spend increased

  • Something many PL clubs have failed to do

Howe has been able to rebuild most of the starting 11 from scratch, but has also gotten the most out of players who don’t seem to be “Champions League quality” at first glance.

Newcastle will likely become a spending superpower in the future, but for now we have to applaud what they have achieved so efficiently & in such a short amount of time.

RAPID-FIRE TRANSFER ROUND-UP 🔄 💥 

Get ready to get up to speed on transfer rumors in 2 minutes. Ready, set…

Xhaka-Rice domino

With Xhaka leaving Arsenal in June, expect the North London club to make quick business of Declan Rice. It is likely they will try to close that transfer in the first week of June, although there is competition in Bayern, Man City, and others.

Evan Ndicka free transfer race

Ndicka (23 y/o) is a physical, tall, lefty centerback from Eintracht Frankfurt. His contract expires this summer, & he is the subject of much clamor. Milan, Liverpool, Arsenal, Spurs, & others have been reliably linked. One to watch.

Kudus to get a big move?

After starring for Ajax in the Champions League the past few seasons & shining as Ghana’s star at the World Cup, Mohammed Kudus has the interest of many clubs— particularly in the Premier League. With one year left on his contract, he’s one to watch. He’s an electric, left-footed attacking midfielder.

Loftus-Cheek to follow Tomori to Milan?

Once hailed as the Chelsea academy’s next big star, Ruben Loftus-Cheek has struggled for what feels like a decade with injuries. Inconsistent loans & playing time have seen him stagnate at Chelsea. The versatile 27 y/o plays CM, RB/RWB, & CDM. Milan could get him for cheap considering Chelsea’s need to sell.

Could Milinkovic-Savic ACTUALLY leave Lazio?

This man has been linked to every big club under the sun for the past 5 years. “SMS” is a hulking 6’3” (191CM) CM (central midfielder) who has been averaging around 15G+A in Serie A for the past five years. Lazio owner, Claudio Lotito, has repeatedly slapped a €100mm price tag on him every transfer window for the past 5 years. With only one year remaining on his contract, maybe SMS can finally get his move. Lotito will not want to lose him for free next summer.

Mac Allister/Liverpool, Kim Min-jae/United, Slot/Spurs

Mac Allister has nearly agreed to terms with Liverpool, per Fabrizio Romano. Release clause unlikely to be an issue. What a signing he would be for the Reds.

Kim Min-jae’s release clause likely to be triggered by Manchester United, unless Napoli can re-negotiate a new contract/clause to keep him.

Feyenoord’s Arne Slot ready to join Spurs as Conte’s permanent replacement.

Reiss Nelson— should I stay or should I go?

The long-touted Arsenal academy product is at a crossroads:

• Stay at boyhood club & start 15-20 matches per season

• Leave to be a sure starter (and maybe a star) elsewhere in a smaller pond

After his impressive substitute cameos this season on either wing, he has peaked the interest of many clubs around the PL & Europe. It appears Arsenal have made yet another attempt to tie him down to a new deal.

If you saw something you liked or don’t want to see any more of— drop it in the comments below.

Share the newsletter with your friends to earn free money 👇️ 💰️ 

5/