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Welcome to the The Free Transfer— the 5-min daily newsletter making you smarter about football.

What a day of drama we have ahead of us. Bundesliga final day & the Championship Playoff final. Buckle up.

Saturday’s menu:

• Bundesliga final day— step up Dortmund! 🟨 ⬛️ 

• Championship Playoff Final— who punches their PL ticket today? 🆙 🎟️ 

• 60 second transfer market update ⏱️ 🔄 

BUNDESLIGA FINAL DAY: D-DAY FOR DORTMUND 🟨 ⬛️ 

Today is the Bundesliga final day. Every team plays at 3:30PM CET (9:30AM EST). After Bayern’s big loss to RB Leipzig last weekend, Dortmund are 2 points ahead of them going into the final day.

First, a look at the table ⤵️ 

The title race 🏇 🥇 

How Dortmund wins the title 🟨⬛️ 

Dortmund win OR Bayern draw/loss

How Bayern wins the title 🟥⬜️ 

Bayern win AND Dortmund draw/loss

• Bayern have a +14 goal difference over Dortmund:

• So if Bayern win AND Dortmund draw (both teams end on 71 pts), it would likely see Bayern win the title on goal difference.

The European spots 🇪🇺 

Champions League 🥇 

Dortmund, Bayern, and RB Leipzig have already punched their tickets for next year’s Champions League by confirming places 1-3 in the league.

Fourth Champions League + Europa League spot 🥈 

Union Berlin (4th) & SC Freiburg (5th) are tied on points but Union Berlin lead by +4 goal difference.

Three-way battle for the Conference League spot 🥉 

Leverkeusen, Wolfsburg, & Frankfurt are separated by 3 points total. Any of them can still finish 6th and qualify for next season’s Conference League.

Relegation battle ⚔️ 

Four-way battle for last two relegation spots 📉 

Schalke (31 points), Bochum (32 points), Stuttgart (32 points), & Augsburg (34) points are hoping not to join Hertha Berlin in relegation today.

Gaffer’s Bets 🃏 

The table will look the same after the matches as it does before them for places 1-8th, as well as in the relegation battle. Boring day! 😉 

THE CHAMPIONSHIP PLAYOFF FINAL 🆙 🎟️

These two teams are not the usual Norwich, Watford, Fulham, or Burnley teams which oscillate between the Premier League and Championship. These two teams have not been anywhere near the conversation for over two decades.

Let’s meet the contestants ⤵️ 

Conventry City ❄️⚪️ 

The last time Conventry City were in the Premier League was in 2001. Just 5 years ago, they were in League 2 (England’s 3rd division). The West Midlands side is ready to make it back to the big time.

Players to watch 🔍️ 

Viktor Gyökeres

• In his second season at the club after being bought from Brighton, this year Gyökeres has hit 31 goals & assists in the league.

• If they are going to score today, it will likely be through him.

Brooke Norton-Cuffy

• On loan from Arsenal, the 19 year-old right wingback is a huge threat going forward & a 1v1 defensive specialist.

Luton Town 🟠⚪️ 

Less than a decade ago, Luton Town were playing non-league football in the National League (4th division). Now they have a chance to punch their ticket for the Premier League.

For context, Kenilworth Road (their stadium) holds only 10,000 fans. This would be the smallest stadium in Premier League history.

Imagine Premier League clubs playing in that ground on a weekly basis…

Players to watch 🔍️ 

Carlton Morris

• The Luton Town striker had 27 goals & assists in the league this season.

Pelly-Ruddock Mpanzu

• The 29 year old midfielder has been with the club for 9 years, starting in the National League (fourth division) all the way to the Championship Playoff Final.

• He would be the first player to from the National League to the Premier League with one team in English football history.

Gaffer’s Bet 🃏 

Luton Town wins in extra time. They have the script on their side. Who doesn’t want to see Manchester City go play in front of 10,000 fans next season?

60 SECOND TRANSFER ROUND-UP ⏱️ 🔄

Lightning round… GO! ⚡️ 

Manor Solomon allowed to leave Shakhtar Donetsk for free

Since the war in Ukraine started, many players have been able to cancel their contracts & leave on loan deals. FIFA has now ruled that players can leave for free.

Manor Solomon (23yrs) has been good for Fulham on loan since January, and could be interesting for Spurs who face a potential summer rebuild. Kane (transfer elsewhere) & Kulusevski (returning to Juventus from loan) have been rumored to leave this summer.

Manuel Ugarte drawing big interest

Ugarte (22yrs) is a fiesty, athletic #6 (defensive midfielder) who also likes to dribble in midfield. PSG & Chelsea won’t be the only clubs interested in him this summer. He will likely not be a Sporting player by this time next month.

Madrid search for depth at striker

Benzema’s age and injury troubles have caused Madrid issues this season. He isn’t getting any younger, so Madrid will need to sign a striker who can share time with him next season. Add Bobby Firmino to this list…

One year left on Raya’s deal— keep or sell

Raya has been great since Brentford were promoted last season. He is a fantastic distributor and is very comfortable with the ball at his feet. Tottenham are rumored to be interested, as they search for Hugo Lloris’s replacement this summer.

Asensio leaving Real Madrid for free

Asensio is leaving on a free transfer in search of a starting role at a top European club. PSG are rumored (potentially filling the hole left by Messi). AC Milan and Manchester United have been rumored in the past.

DiMaria + Paredes to leave Juventus

Di Maria will not renew his contract at Juve, & has been linked with a free move to Barca.

• This could make sense for Barca—sell one of many promising wingers for a profit, then sign Di Maria for free + on a cheap contract.

Paredes will go back to PSG from his loan & likely be sold elsewhere.

Edson Alvarez to Dortmund edging closer

Looks like Dortmund have already found Jude Bellingham’s replacement. Alvarez nearly moved to Chelsea last August for £50mm but Ajax rejected.

Sacha Boey looks Premier League-bound

Brighton & Arsenal are rumored to be interested in the former Rennes right back. Galatasaray are rumored to want €25mm for the 22 year old.

Ibrahima Bamba expected to get a big move this summer

Linked with a move to Aston Villa since February/March, the 21 year-old Italian looks bound for a big move this summer. In January he was also linked to PSG & Arsenal. He plays #6 (defensive midfielder), #8 (central midfield), & center back for Vitória de Guimarães in Portugal’s top flight.

That’s all for today, folks. Go flip on Dortmund-Mainz, followed by Coventry-Luton. You’re bound to get some drama.

—The Gaffer

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