👑Coronation Weekend Round-Up⚽

Hey team, it’s the Gaffer. This is The Free Transfer. We cut through the noise, giving you the 5 minute football update— from transfer market news .

It’s Champions League Tuesday, meaning a Mancunian-Madridista Masterpiece. Before watching, check out our preview and what you missed this weekend:

• Premier League 🔝 4️⃣ 

  • Top 4 race gets interesting

  • Southampton all but relegated

• Serie A 👑 

  • Naples win first Serie A title in 33 years

  • Top 4 race heats up

• Transfer sagas ignite 🔄 

  • Declan Rice, Moisés Caicedo, Alexis MacAllister, Jude Bellingham

• Champions League semifinals preview 🏆️ 

  • Real Madrid vs. Manchester City Rematch

PREMIER LEAGUE TOP 4 RACE GETS SPICY 🌶️ 

As we approach the business end of the season, teams and fans can ask themselves a series of questions:

• Can we win the title? 🔝 

• If not can we get a top 4 spot to qualify for Champions League? 4️⃣ 

• Okay, maybe not but how about Europa & Conference League spots? 🆒 

• We won’t really be relegated, right? 💩 

1/ Are we Title Chasers?

• Short answer: If you are not Manchester City or Arsenal, no.

• Manchester City

  • Chances: In their hands

  • Hold a firm lead over Arsenal— their 2-1 win over Leeds gives them a 1 point cushion with a game in hand.

• Arsenal

  • Chances: slim, barring a major slip-up by City in the last 4 weeks.

  • An impressive performance in a physical match at St. James Park, ended in a 2-0 win.

• Next up: Everton away for City; Brighton at home for Arsenal

Gaffer’s bet: City 1st, Arsenal 2nd

2/ Top Four Race

• The top four race’s spice level is peaking at the right time— Newcastle, Manchester United, Liverpool, and Brighton are duking it out

• Newcastle

  • Chances: high! fairly easy last 4 matches

  • Their loss to Arsenal was surprising given their impeccable home record this season, but they are in the driver’s seat for Top 4.

• Manchester United

  • Chances: still in their hands, but the skid must end

  • Continued their skid with a loss to West Ham away, making it 4/12 points from their last 4 matches.

• Liverpool

  • Chances: on the up! But need help via United/Newcastle losses.

  • Scraped another 1-0 win to make it 6 in a row. That cuts the Top 4 gap to 1 point, although they have played one extra game.

  • Crowd was particularly enthused by the coronation this weekend!

• Brighton

  • Chances: all but over. Plus they face the PL’s top 3 teams in their last 5 matches…

  • Hopes were high after a big midweek win vs. United, which makes this weekend’s inexplicable 5-1 home loss to relegation-threatened Everton even more painful.

Gaffer’s bet: Newcastle 3rd, United 4th.

3/ Europa & Conference League spots

• Who’s in the hunt— Liverpool, Tottenham, Brighton, Aston Villa…… and West Ham?

• Europa League places: 5th and 6th, since the FA Cup winner is top 5

• Conference League place: 7th, because EFL cup winner is top 5

  • Liverpool—chances: secure, 5th place looking nearly locked in

  • Tottenham—chances: solid, 6th looks shaky, 7th looks good

  • Brighton— chances: solid, 6th looks good, 7th looks locked in

  • Aston Villa—chances: not great, tough fixtures + need chaos

  • West Ham— chances: possible!— must win Conference League!

Gaffer’s bet: Liverpool 5th, Spurs 6th, Brighton 7th

4/ Relegation battle

• Who’s in danger— Southampton, Leeds, Leicester, Everton, Nottingham Forest, West Ham

• Relegation places: 18-20th

  • Southampton— chances: 99.9%, loss to Forest= final nail

  • Leeds— chances: 95%, tough fixtures + out of their hands

  • Leicester— chances: 90%, tough fixtures + out of their hands

  • Everton—chances: 35%, huge win vs. BHA gave breathing room

  • Forest—chances: 25%, crucial win in 6 pointer vs. S’ampton

  • West Ham—chances: 1%, everything would have to go wrong

Gaffer’s bet: Southampton 20th, Leicester 19th, Leeds 18th

NAPLES CROWNED SERIE A CHAMPIONS 👑 

After a 33 year wait, Naples win the Serie A title for the first time since Maradonna was at the club.

Just like the in the Premier League, the race for Top 4 spots heats up…

1/ Naples breaks the curse

• 33 years later and it’s Osimhen, Kvaratskhelia, and co. who bring back the first Scudetto since Maradonna played for Napoli.

• After a disappointing Champions League quarterfinals elimination at the hands of Serie A rivals AC Milan, winning the Scudetto is a worthy remedy. By far the best side in Italy this season.

• The long-standing critcism of owner Aurelio De Laurentiis has been selling his stars—money at the cost of trophies.

  • After losing 4 of their top players from the past 5 years in Kalidou Koulibaly, Dries Mertens, Lorenzo Insigne, & Fabian Ruiz over the summer, many thought that this would once again be the case. Little did they know that the arrival of lesser-known Kvaratskhelia, Kim Min-Jae, & co. would more than just dampen the blow of losing star players, but elevate them to a new level!

• The question looming over them this offseason:

  • Can they hold onto their key players, among interest from Europe’s elite?

  • Not if De Laurentiis has anything to say about it, although we’ve heard this before from him

2/ Top 4 Race

• Contenders: Juventus, Lazio, Inter, Milan, Atalanta, Roma

• Juventus

  • Chances: in their hands, very high

  • With a few wins, their top 4 spot is as good as wrapped up

  • They also have a back-door route through winning the Europa league (semifinals start this week vs. Sevilla)

• Lazio

  • Chances: in their hands, high

  • A win vs. Milan this weekend would have all but secured it, but a 0-2 loss to Milan keeps it wide open. Easy remaining fixtures.

• Inter

  • Chances: in their hands, solid

  • This weekend’s win against Top 4 rival Roma is a huge boost. Remaining fixtures are challenging but they control their destiny.

  • They have a route to Champions League by winning this year’s competition (semifinal vs. Milan tomorrow)

• Milan

  • Chances: need help, but very possible

  • A 2-0 win over Lazio this weekend kept their Top 4 hopes alive

  • Champions League semifinal tomorrow vs. Inter serves as alternate route to Champions League football for next season.

• Atalanta

  • Chances: need lots of help, not high

  • 2-0 loss to Juve this weekend hurt, but all eyes on their potential 6-pointer with Inter in a few weeks

• Roma

  • Chances: need even more help, not high

  • 2-0 Loss to Inter this weekend hurt. Easy remaining fixtures, but none with a Top 4 rival. They’ll need chaos above them.

  • Their best chance will be to win Europa League (semifinal vs. Bayer Leverkeusen starts on Thursday)

Gaffer’s bet: table doesn’t change.

SUMMER TRANSFER SAGAS IGNITE 🔄 

As we get to the end of each domestic league’s season, cup finals approach, and teams get ready for their first extended summer break since pre-COVID (thanks COVID, Euro 2021, and winter World Cup 2022)— the transfer sagas begin.

Here at The Free Transfer, we only curate top-tier reports. That’s right. No “in the know” Twitter accounts who claim they have leaks from top clubs. Just reputable journalists with track records of reliability. Think Fabrizio Romano, David Ornstein, and the like.

1/ Sagas begin

• Declan Rice

  • “West Ham are interested in Marseille midfielder Matteo Guendouzi as a potential replacement for Declan Rice, who is expected to leave this summer amid interest from Arsenal, Newcastle & Manchester United.” [@TheAthleticFC]

  • The long sought-after central midfielder from West Ham will have one year left on his deal this summer. As per Ornstein and Romano, he wants Champions League football but clubs will have to meet their demands. With the amount of top clubs circling, their asking price is likely to be met.

• Moisés Caicedo

  • After confirmed bids >£70mm were made by both Arsenal and Chelsea in the January transfer window, there has been lots of speculation about where he would end up this summer.

  • Weeks after the window closed, he penned a new deal with BHA, surprising many after his public attempts to leave in January.

• Alexis Mac Allister

  • Brighton’s World Cup hero also has the “Big 6” vultures circling, especially Liverpool per Fabrizio Romano:

• Jude Bellingham

  • It has been reported that Real Madrid have won the race for his signature, for what will likely be a world record fee for a teenager. The feeling here is both Liverpool and Manchester City still have something to say about the matter…

Gaffer's Bets:

• Declan Rice joins Arsenal where his favored left and defensive cetral midfield positions are held by aging players, where he could link up with England teammates in Champions League football, while staying in London.

• Moisés Caicedo stays at Brighton for another season, as BHA’s big summer transfer will be Alexis Mac Allister. After large payouts for Mac Allister, Cucurella, Bissouma, Trossard and Graham Potter in the past year, they are under no financial pressure to sell another key player.

• Alexis Mac Allister joins Liverpool to reinvigorate their aging midfield.

• Jude Bellingham joins Real Madrid, teaming up with Eduardo Camavinga, Aurélien Tchouaméni, and Fede Valverde to make the best midfield in world football for the next decade.

MADRID VS. MAN CITY— UCL SEMIS PREVIEW 🏆️ 

After last year’s dramatic finish, seeing Madrid score 2 goals in 100 seconds to send the tie to extra time, we have been salivating to get a rematch.

Here’s what has happened since the last time they met:

Manchester City

• Pep Guardiola has been using a 4 Center Back formation, with John Stones joining Rodri in defensive midfield to lock up their box while defending. Nathan Aké’s health could be crucial to this tie. No more attacking fullbacks like Joao Cancelo…

• Manchester City have brought a Nordic Robot named Erling Haaland to ensure they score from every half chance.

• Bottom line: Scarred from years of tragic Champions League eliminations at Manchester City, Pep Guardiola is no longer taking chances in either box. Haaland to score the goals and 4 Center Backs to defend the box.

Real Madrid

• Ancelotti has used essentially the same formation he used last season, with additions of Rudiger and Tchouaméni. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

• This is that time of year where Madrid turn their level to 99 in all attributes. If there is one thing this team knows how to do, it is win the Champions League.

• Bottom line: Don’t expect something ground-breaking. Real Madrid will play their typical 433/442 hybrid. Their individual class will keep them alive even if they look beaten. Doubt them at your own peril.

Gaffer’s Bet:

• Real Madrid win in a photo finish. Until Manchester City prove they can beat the best, the burden of proof remains with them. Yes, they have Haaland but Aké’s injury could be an issue if Rodrygo plays off the right.

WHAT WOULD YOU LIKE TO SEE MORE OF IN THE DAILY NEWSLETTER? 🔍️ 🤨 

Thanks for joining us, see you tomorrow for Inter vs. Milan preview and more!