GM, Free Agents. Happy Monday of UCL Final week.

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It appears Chelsea just got out-Chelsea’d by PSG.

What’s up today:

• PSG hijack Chelsea’s deal for Manuel Ugarte at the 11th hour 😱

  • Let’s check out the list of their best alternatives

  • Full statistical, fit, & likelihood of deal analyses

PSG HIJACK UGARTE DEAL FROM CHELSEA! 😱 🇫🇷 

According to Fabrizio Romano, PSG have come in and hijacked Manuel Ugarte from Chelsea at the 11th hour. They offered a fee & wages that suited Sporting Lisbon & Ugarte more, so the player will now join PSG.

But like we always say in the transfer market:

It’s not over, until it’s over.

It appears that Chelsea have missed out on their #1 transfer target for the #6 position. Let’s check out their rumored alternatives ⤵️ 

Player profiles 🧮 

Moises Caicedo, 21yo 🇪🇨 — Brighton & Hove Albion

Athleticism/Physicality

• Low center of gravity

• Great agility

• Deceptively strong

• Not tall for a #6— 5’10”

  • But still 94th percentile for aerials won! Athletic.

Position(s)

• He is a player that can fit across an advanced #8 role in midfield, to a single pivot at #6, and even play LB/RB in defense.

• His versatility makes him extremely valuable.

Defense

• Aggressive & front-footed

• Strong in the tackle— 87th percentile for tackles/90

• Defensive positioning very good— 89th percentile for interceptions/90

• Makes tackles EVERYWHERE on the pitch — >75th percentile for tackles in def, mid, & att 3rd

Passing

• 94th percetile for pass completion %

• 74th percentile for progressive passes/90

• 93rd percentile for long pass completion %

In possession/dribbling

• 86th percentile for passes received— takes responsibility at pivot in build-up

• Not a great ball-progressor or carrier

Romeo Lavia, 19yo 🇧🇪 — Southampton

Athleticism/Physicality

• 5’11” & a bit more physically built than Caicedo

  • Yet significantly worse in aerial duels!— 26th percentile (vs. Caicedo’s 94th percentile)

• Eye test shows him pushing much larger players off the ball, but picking his moments to be physical— it’s not what defines his playing style

Position(s)

• He played mostly #6 for Southampton, but also a bit of #8

• Less versatile than Caicedo

Defense

• Slightly worse tackling & interceptions statistics than Caicedo, but still very good

• Significantly better blocked shots & passes than Caicedo

  • Much more of a positional/spacial defender than Caicedo who is an “in-your-face”, ball-hunting midfielder

Passing

• There is a lot of red here but the main thing to focus on is:

  • 78th percentile in completed passes %

    • 75th for short, 87th for medium, & 82 for long

• He was playing for league-worst Southampton, so his # of passes will be very low naturally, due to their time in possession being so low.

In possession/dribbling

• Considering he was playing #6 in the PL’s worst team, he never had many opportunities to build possession from the back.

  • He was often bypassed with longballs straight from GK/DEF to the FWDs.

• 70th percentile for miscontrols shows that he is secure with his first touch (better than Caicedo at 57th percentile).

• Much better than Caicedo in every “take on” category

  • Shows that he is able to bounce off tackles when dribbling better than Caicedo, due to his larger frame

  • This could scale up in a better team, where he would have more opportunities to carry the ball.

Conclusion

Both players, in context of their teams

Caicedo is much more an aggressive ball-winner/tackler who covers a lot more of the pitch than Lavia. He roams around waiting to attack the ball should it be turned over.

• Important to remember that Caicedo was playing in one of the league’s best teams in possession. He was still one of the best players for that good team, though.

Lavia is more anchored to the base of the midfield, circulating possession, progressing the ball upfield, blocking passing lanes, & shielding the defensive line.

• Important to remember that Lavia was playing in by far the worst team in the Premier League, but still stood out relatively. He was part of that bad team, but one of the best players.

The two could actually coexist together quite nicely.

• Lavia could be more anchored to the base of the midfield, while Caicedo could have more license to roam+hunt the ball.

• Also, if Chelsea lose Kante for free this summer, Lavia & Caicedo could split time at the #6.

Rumored prices 💷 

Caicedo

Tweeted by Secret Scout this morning quoted Brighton’s asking price at £100mm. Oof.

• Secret Scout is one of the most reliable sources when it comes to u23 players in the transfer market, especially in the Premier League.

They later added, “Brighton happy to lower price if a player they want is included in the deal… I think it’s been made public of a recent bid for a player.”

• More on this below 👇️ 

Lavia

It seems that Chelsea view Lavia as an alternative #6 to Caicedo & Ugarte who are/were their primary targets for the position.

It has been rumored by Fabrizio Romano, The Atletic, & other publications that Southampton would demand something around £40mm for him.

Chelsea have a history of bids & documented interest in Lavia.

Likelihood of the deals ⚖️ 

Caicedo

• His rumored price of £100mm would likely put Chelsea off, especially since they just lost Ugarte due to not wanting to pay €60mm release clause, as they thought it was more than his value ⤵️ 

• Brighton have already had a £30mm bid for Levi Colwill rejected by Chelsea.

  • Young, starlet CB was on loan this season at Brighton from Chelsea.

• The only way this deal gets done is with major sales from Chelsea, or including players in the deal.

  • Unlikely that Chelsea pay >£85mm (based on Ugarte deal + £75mm January bid for Caicedo)

Lavia

• It seems that Lavia could be a fairly straightforward purchase.

• Anything above £40mm bid would likely be accepted by recently-relegated Southampton.

Gaffer’s Bet 🃏 

• Chelsea eventually buy Lavia for £40mm

• Chelsea sell key players in the coming weeks to fund purchases

  • Mount for ~£50-60mm to United seems close

  • Havertz to Madrid is heating up (>£40mm)

  • Kovacic to City seems all but done for >£25mm

• Chelsea offer ~£80-85mm for Caicedo

  • They will not include Levi Colwill in negotiations.

As we all know, these transfer situations can flip upside down in a matter of minutes. We have no inside information, but just work off of what is provided by the top-tier 🥇 journalists.

Cheers to more transfer madness, and to The Free Transfer keeping you informed on who they are, where they’re going, & how they’ll fit into their new teams.

—The Gaffer

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