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Welcome to the The Free Transfer— the 5-min daily newsletter making you smarter about football.

Our transfer senses are tingling. It’s the time of year when Fabrizio Romano’s notifications become more important than your significant other’s.

What’s on tap:

• Xavi lays out Barcelona’s transfer plans in today’s presser 💣️ 🔵 🔴 

  • Xavi’s transfer targets

  • Who’s on the chopping block?

  • What would the team look like?

XAVI SPILLS BARCA’S TRANSFER PLANS 💣️ 🔵 🔴 

What did Xavi say? Quotes from this morning’s presser ⤵️ 

Wow, that is a transfer bomb if we’ve ever seen one. Xavi has revealed Barca’s plans going into the transfer window, which are pretty clear if you examine their squad. Below, let’s investigate what it all means. ⤵️ 

Interpreting Xavi’s comments 🕵️ 

Xavi mentioned a lot of names there. Let’s break it down.

Attackers ⏩️ 

Messi— RW/#10/False 9

• If he comes, no one necessarily needs to leave. Xavi likely sees him as a floating false 9/SS. With Lewandowski the only striker at the club, no real room needs to be made. Also can play as attacking midfielder.

Raphinha— RW, can play LW if needed

• Xavi has confirmed he is staying. That is just as big of news for Barca as signing a new winger. There was a lot of speculation about him being sacrificed due to Barca needing to raise funds/cut costs.

Carrasco— LW/LM/LWB, can play RW if needed

• Barcelona have a €20mm option to sign Carrasco this summer (part of Memphis Depay deal). The Belgian is versatile— LW/LM/LWB for Atleti. He is also able to play RW if needed. His experience would be great for the young team.

• His signing could mean Torres/Fati will be sold. Barca could make ~€40-50mm off of one of them, then sign Carrasco, & net €20-30mm.

Bernardo Silva— RW/#8/#10

• He would likely be seen as a RCM/#8 by Xavi, who could also play at RW.

• Is he an alternative to Leo Messi?

• He may be prohibitively expensive. Would not get your hopes up here.

Midfielders 🔃 

Zubimendi— #6/in a single or double pivot

• Direct replacement for Busquets.

• He would immediately be the starter at #6, and could play in eitehr a single or double pivot.

Gundogan— #8/ double pivot if needed

• Another replacement for Busquets.

• Can also play the advanced LCM and RCM roles, or in a double pivot with another CDM. High-quality budget signing who covers many roles.

Kimmich— #8/ double pivot

• Similar to Gundogan in versatility. He is a good defender but shines most as a deep-lying creator. Unique profile in football.

• Could “replace” Busquets’s spot in the squad.

• Much less likely due to price that Bayern would demand.

Neves— #6 in a double pivot

• Would be an interesting alternative to Zubimendi if they also got Gundogan/Kimmich.

• More of a “destroyer” in midfield, has ability to circulate possession (but not the best on the ball), & chips in with long-range/free kick threat.

• Wouldn’t likely be able to play Busquets’s lone pivot role.

Defenders ⏪️ 

Cancelo— RWB/LWB, can invert into midfield & even play RW

• Xavi already said yes to him for a January loan, but City wouldn’t allow it. Likely that Barca wanted to pay no fee & not the full salary.

• Starter at RB & would give LB cover.

  • Right now at LB they have Balde & Alonso.

  • At RB, they will likely sell Dest which leaves only Sergi Roberto & Kounde (more a RCB).

Who is on the chopping block this summer? 🔪 

Attackers ⏩️ 

Ferran Torres or Ansu Fati

• A combined 15G+A in 25 LaLiga starts shows their lack of productvity & the lack of trust Xavi has in them.

• With Barca’s current financial situation, sales will be necessary if they are to bring in new signings.

  • Torres’s & Fati’s sales could each bring in €30mm+

• Torres’s sale seems much more likely.

Midfielders 🔃 

Franck Kessie

• Brought in on a free transfer last summer, Kessie has never gotten a fair shot at Barca.

  • 6 starts in LaLiga this season

• He will likely be sold for a small profit to help fund the signing of a Busquets replacement, and/or make way for the reintegration of Nico Gonzalez.

  • Sale to PL, Serie A, or France for €5-15mm is likely

Defenders ⏪️ 

Loan army

Clement Lenglet

• Will likely be purchased by Tottenham, but Lenglet wants to see who Spurs’s new manager will be before making a decision.

• €10-15mm sale likely

Samuel Umtiti

• Somehow he has 3 years left on his Barca contract

• He will likely continue to be loaned until then, without taking a paycut.

• Barca likely cannot afford to pay off his contract now.

• €0-5mm sale possible

Sergino Dest

• Dest’s loan at AC Milan was a total failure. He will be sold or loaned out again this summer. Barcelona will look to get any amount of money here.

• Cancelo would be a fantastic replacement & upgrade.

• €5-10mm sale likely

Eric Garcia

• The once promising, young CB from La Masia & then Manchester City academy has not had a great time at Barca since signing last summer.

• His 14 LaLiga starts were mostly due to injuries of other CBs at the club.

• With Inigo Martinez’s confirmed signing on a Free Transfer from Athletic Club, Garcia will likely leave.

• €10-20mm sale plausible

Total plausible sales: ~€75-80mm

How would that leave Barcelona’s squad depth before any new signings? 🔍️ 

After those departures, here is what Barca’s depth would look like before any new signings ⤵️ 

If we add in plausible summer signings of Messi, Carrasco, Zubimendi, & Inigo Martinez— things start looking much better. ⤵️ 

• Messi— free transfer

• Martinez— free transfer

• Zubimendi— €60mm release clause

• Carrasco— €20mm buy clause

Holes covered 🕳️ 

• Messi can start & cover holes at #9, RW, & attacking midfield.

• Martinez brings depth to both CB positions.

• Zubimendi slots in for Busquets; allows FDJ to roam.

• Carrasco can start at LW & enables sale of Ferran Torres for profit.

Extra reinforcements ➕ 

Gundogan

• Would provide extra depth at pivot, & allow for another Nico loan

• Xavi makes it seem like they are still in the running to sign him, based on his comments in today’s presser.

Cancelo

• Would be a luxury signing but would add top class to the squad

• Strategy for Barca could be to wait out City, who may have a hard time finding a buyer.

Zooming out 👁️ 

Barcelona will likely be able to sell somewhere between €60-80mm in players. This should give them a decent amount of leeway to make new signings.

In the next week or so, Messi will make his decision. That will be the first domino to fall in Barcelona’s transfer strategy this summer. Let’s see what happens!

That’s all folks!

Big moves coming this summer.

—The Gaffer

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