GM. This is the The Free Transfer, the kid who gives you all the answers to the homework right before class starts.

Super sunday edition:

• Arsenal quadruple bomba from Fab today 💣️💣️💣️💣️ 

  • Rice 🍚 

  • Kai 🐍 

  • Partey 🎉 

  • Lavia 😤 

ARSENAL QUADRUPLE BOMBA FROM FAB 💣️💣️💣️💣️

Fabrizio dropped four bombs today about Arsenal’s summer recruitment.

Let’s take a look at them before discussing their significance. 👇️ 

Starting from the top 🔝 

Declan Rice 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 

Manchester City are lurking, but it seems like Declan Rice wants to join Arsenal. Arsenal will look to quickly make a second bid that meets West Ham’s valuation of ~£100MM to close the deal before Manchester City have a chance to table a bid.

With Xhaka looking set to leave for Bayer Leverkeusen this summer, Rice looks to be the perfect replacement. He can play in that left #8 role that Xhaka did, while also being the lighthouse of a #6 that Arsenal want long-term.

Kai Havertz 🇩🇪 

With Bayern interested, Arsenal will look to close this one as soon as possible too. It sounds like the final price will be around £65MM. Havertz is keen to join and has already agreed to personal terms with Arsenal.

The risk

For Arteta, this is potentially the biggest risk of his tenure. This would be the most he’s ever spent on an attacker (and the most on any transfer, if Rice’s transfer doesn’t go through).

Kai Havertz has struggled at Chelsea since signing in 2020.

• €100MM transfer fee

• 70 PL starts from a possible 114

• 19 goals, 7 assists

For that size of a fee, those are not numbers to write home about.

Havertz played his best football at Chelsea when he was allowed to float around as a SS/#10 next to & behind Timo Werner. It was the same case at Bayer Leverkeusen in 2018-2020 when he was used as a #10/SS.

It is no coincidence that his form took a huge plunge after he started playing as a lone #9 for Chelsea this season, after Lukaku was shipped out.

The upside

In Arteta’s attacking system, Havertz would be able to rotate fluidly with a number of attackers like Martinelli, Jesus, Odegaard, & Saka.

Last season saw Jesus & Martinelli interchanging during almost every match.

Havertz has that “raumdeuter”/fluidity-in-space gene that Arteta likes.

On top of this, Arteta has explicitly mentioned to the media that he wants a taller option at striker who can win headers & hold the ball up with his back to goal. Havertz is 94th percentile for aerial duels won % 👇️ 

Verdict

Havertz can give Arsenal a good option for a different type of center forward than Jesus (or attacking midfielder), but the amount of money they are paying suggests he will be a starter. The two could plausibly coexist.

He has the versatility & talent to fit in well with Arsenal’s attacking group, but—

1. Is he good enough to take them to the next level?

   1. Do Arsenal even need to go up a level in attack? They scored their most ever goals in a PL campaign last season.

2. Will Arteta be able to get more out of him than Chelsea could?

Once a €100MM wunderkind at Bayer Leverkeusen, Havertz will need Arteta’s help to rediscover what once made him Germany’s crown-jewel youngster. Shades of Odegaard’s development arc at Arsenal? 👀 

Thomas Partey could leave this summer 🇬🇭 

With only two years left on his contract, Thomas Partey has been linked to moves away this summer. Arsenal will not likely offer him a new contract, & will want to recoup some money for the 30 year old.

Partey has had a history of late-season muscle injuries & inconsistency in his three years at Arsenal. That being said, he is one of the big reasons they were in the title race to begin with last season (even if his decline played a large part in the Gunners’ late-season collapse).

Would getting €15-25MM for Partey be worth what it would cost to replace him?

• Losing both Partey & Xhaka, the club’s most senior players, could be a big blow. If he were to leave, he would need to be replaced.

Romeo Lavia has concrete chances to join Arsenal 🇧🇪 

There are concrete chances for Romeo Lavia to join Arsenal. Arsenal have already been in contact with the player, & are thinking about making a bid.

The former Manchester City academy product had a phenomenal debut PL season at Southampton this year, despite their relegation.

Lavia can play as a lone #6 or as a CM in a double pivot.

He would likely cost somewhere between €30-40MM.

There is absolutely no doubt about his ceiling as a player. On this trajectory, he could become one of the best in the game in his position. That being said, is he ready to step in for Thomas Partey in a title-challenging side like Arsenal? Maybe not.

At the right price, he would be the perfect understudy for Thomas Partey in the #6 position, & potential long-term partner for Declan Rice.

🔍️ Zooming out: What it all means for Arsenal?

Attack ⏩️ 

Adding Havertz to this group of attackers:

• LW: Martinelli, Trossard

• CF: Jesus, Havertz, Nketiah

• RW: Saka, Nelson

• #10/AM: Odegaard, Havertz, Smith-Rowe, Vieira

Havertz could fit nicely in at striker or at right attacking mid (Odegaard’s role).

Having such a talented & versatile player waiting in the wings could be a huge help for Arsenal who will be playing in UCL next year.

Midfield 👫 

Losing Granit Xhaka & Thomas Partey in the same summer is going to hurt Arsenal a lot in the short-term. Declan Rice & Romeo Lavia are high-quality replacements, but Lavia is a short-term downgrade on Partey.

Here is what the depth will look like assuming the sales of Partey, Xhaka, & Lokonga (loan):

• CM/CDM: Rice, Jorginho, Lavia, (Zinchenko inverting from LB)

Compare that to last season’s:

• CM/CDM: Xhaka, Partey, Jorginho, (Zinchenko)

So, yes. Arsenal are “upgrading” on Xhaka with Rice, but Lavia is not likely to reach Partey’s levels from last season in 2023-24. If he does, that would be a pleasant surprise. On top of that, it could take Rice a few months to get used to his new team as well.

Potential formations with new signings 🆕 

With these, don’t grill the details of the attackers’ positions. Just look at how the midfield could work. Maybe Odegaard makes his move to the left side?

Rice lone #6

In this scenario, Arsenal would essentially have Jesus/Odegaard playing in Xhaka’s #8 role where they could track back & combine with Martinelli in attack.

Rice would be well-covered by Lavia/Jorginho.

3 CBs, 2 DMs

Here, Arsenal look a bit short in the midfield department with Jorginho being the only real cover to both Rice & Lavia. In an emergency, Zinchenko could slot in but it feels like Arsenal are just as short there as they were this past season.

Conclusion

If Rice & Lavia come in to replace Xhaka & Partey, Arsenal will likely still recruit another central midfielder of the same position to be cover with Jorginho.

If they do not recruit another CM (ahem, Gundogan), then that will tell us a lot about how Arteta wants to play going forward.

• It would tell us that he will likely only use one holding midfielder in Rice/Lavia with a back 4 of CBs (or back 3, with the 4th inverting into midfield with Rice— think Zinchenko or Stones at City).

All that being said, Arsenal could just keep Partey for one more season to give Rice & Lavia time to bed into the team. Let’s see how it plays out.

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Cheers,

—The Gaffer